Libya

[Jedidiah]

I'm all for democracy and individual freedoms, but I would be just as focused on "who" is creating the uprisings and "who" intends to take over the governments, just as much as the "what" that is occurring.

Not that change shouldn't occur, but replacing one tyrannical dictatorship with another or even a extremist fringe group, isn't going to bring individual freedom / peace to a nation. For more on this, look up "sharia law."

[Dudermagee]

Yes I do care about all of the things you just mentioned.
Those are horrible facts of life, not enough people care, to try and help people in Africa, Middle East, Asia, South America, to get them the care they need, and its honestly disgusting how little America cares as a whole.

War and conflict is one of those things that does happen, but this one just so happens to effect a lot more the world directly, fuel prices go up, and everyone starts to take notice. How about someone takes notice to the Ivory Coast, which is in a state of slavery right now, any time you eat Hershey/Mars/Nestle chocolate, chances are, you are eating cocoa that was harvested by slaves. But no one takes notice of that, no one cares to not each the chocolate and try and put an end to that. I'm not saying the US should go in and stop these people, we aren't a world police force, and getting involved in conflicts like this only ever end poorly.

If Libya didn't have a ton of oil and wasn't one of the primary exporters, I guarantee that most people just wouldn't even think about it, hell many don't now. A rise in fuel prices though, that brings attention to 2 things, 1 - our severe dependency on foreign oil, 2 - there is severe conflict going on some where in the world that is causing this.

The Libyan conflict is just beginning, Ghadafi has already demonstrated that he doesn't care about the people. If anyone saw his speech, he said that he would stop at nothing to put down the rebellion, he also said that "the people are influenced by hallucination pills", UM.. WHAT?! The man is crazy and psychotic, no it is not the US's place to get involved, nor do I think we should, but realize even when shit gets really bad, the only reason most of the American population is going to care, is because our gas prices went up.

And yes I do realize how big a deal that is, my Dad commutes 127 miles a day, 5 days a week. Gas is a huge expense for him, and my family. So don't say I don't get it, because I really do.

Hopefully this opens our eyes to 2 things, 1 - the need for alternative energy sources is staggering if the US has any desire to be successful in the coming 20 years. 2 - Other countries in the world are facing issues just as bad as this one, and there are little things that we can do, to help slow these tyrants, and give the people a fighting chance.

tl:dr

[Kielan]

I'm all for democracy and individual freedoms, but I would be just as focused on "who" is creating the uprisings and "who" intends to take over the governments, just as much as the "what" that is occurring.

Not that change shouldn't occur, but replacing one tyrannical dictatorship with another or even a extremist fringe group, isn't going to bring individual freedom / peace to a nation. For more on this, look up "sharia law."

I completely agree with you here Ben.

An all to common problem is that after uprisings like the one we are seeing in LIbya is that the new gov't is more corrupt, and even worse for the people. Every now and again something good comes of it but 9 times out of 10, it ends up being worse. This is where people say other nations should get involved, but the problem is that, that country has its own agenda as well, and what it wants may not benefit the people in anyway.

Rebellions are a tough thing to get right, and chances are it takes several years before things get better for the people.

tl:dr

-__-

[NegativeCamber]

ive been reading a couple of people posting stuff about this on fb, and blaming the military,

fucking retards theyre just following orders.

its a complex situation and you can look at it any way you want, but it still comes down to the sole purpose of a military is to protect its own people, not to carry out senseless mass genocide against its own. so what you are saying is that the military, as a whole, is a brainless machine that would jump into a fiery pit because they were told to do so? not exactly. that whole us verses them mentality needs to stop. the military are people of their country, not some separate entity.

[Jedidiah]

I completely agree with you here Ben.

An all to common problem is that after uprisings like the one we are seeing in LIbya is that the new gov't is more corrupt, and even worse for the people. Every now and again something good comes of it but 9 times out of 10, it ends up being worse. This is where people say other nations should get involved, but the problem is that, that country has its own agenda as well, and what it wants may not benefit the people in anyway.

Rebellions are a tough thing to get right, and chances are it takes several years before things get better for the people.

-__-

Iran is the most recent example of the potential outcomes of uprisings such as we see right now. While the people begin to feel liberated, extremist fringes move in to make a power grab. The issue is that if these extremist fringes succeed, it opens the gate for organized terrorist associations to partner with them, expanding the threat on countries like the US (the Great Satan) and Israel (the Little Satan). This is the belief of "extreme" Islam.

[motocaddy]

I'm all for democracy and individual freedoms, but I would be just as focused on "who" is creating the uprisings and "who" intends to take over the governments, just as much as the "what" that is occurring.

Not that change shouldn't occur, but replacing one tyrannical dictatorship with another or even a extremist fringe group, isn't going to bring individual freedom / peace to a nation. For more on this, look up "sharia law."

That is definitely one of the fears, but I'm not sure anyone can say for sure how great the threat actually is for extremist taking over. From most accouts, it appears that these revolutions are driven by the populus of citizens and not terrorist groups. Regardless, it's clear that people in the middle-east want democracy and it's something we should want for them. It would take a lot of western involvement for us to know exactly what's going on with these new governments. It's not like we've been successful in setting up democracies in this area of the world, so I think we just have to let it ride and hope for the best.

[Kielan]

It is the "citizen armies" though that gain power, and because these people are so unfit to lead a nation, it all goes south from there.

[Jedidiah]

That is definitely one of the fears, but I'm not sure anyone can say for sure how great the threat actually is for extremist taking over. From most accouts, it appears that these revolutions are driven by the populus of citizens and not terrorist groups. Regardless, it's clear that people in the middle-east want democracy and it's something we should want for them. It would take a lot of western involvement for us to know exactly what's going on with these new governments. It's not like we've been successful in setting up democracies in this area of the world, so I think we just have to let it ride and hope for the best.

I'm certainly not advocating for us to get involved in anything else at the moment. Hell, we still haven't come to the full realization of the debt crisis that we are facing as a country. We literally do not have the "resources" to get involved anywhere else.

One of my best friends is over in Egypt and was in the middle of the uprising. His photos made it on to CNN.com and he was interviewed by John King and Anderson Cooper at separate times in the middle of the protest. Talking to him, he said that indeed it was a populace uprising and that the anti-govt Egyptians were nothing but nice to him. So much so, that he helped setup a impromptu hospital to help care for the wounded. It was the pro-government people stirring the violence.

All to say, I agree with you 100% Ben. There is no way for anyone to truly know what's taking place on the crowd without some sort of first-hand information (and any sort of media source is NOT first hand.) Doesn't change the realities of both threats to the US and to Israel, which really hasn't been touched on, but we will save that for another thread.


Edit: Found a quick video of my friend.. forgive the commercial spot up front: [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D73nUgEX9Wo"]YouTube - CNN: American helps wounded in Egypt[/ame]

[Kielan]

It is the "citizen armies" though that gain power, and because these people are so unfit to lead a nation, it all goes south from there.

That said you are right, we really have no idea who is really leading this, and what the rebellion is doing. Once reliable first hand accounts start to come out, that is when a real view of what is going on can be made.

[da3bous]

Well i'd say we are heading in a direction that might very well end the need for groups like Al-Qaeda, I don't know if any of you know the true rising and need for groups like that in the past. But they were bore from fed up individuals with their current political regime.

The 2nd in command of Al-Qaeda Ayman Al-zahrawi is an egyptian national who was fed up with "dictatorship"; spoke openly about egypt and their corruption and such. But now that the people have risen up and removed the problem it causes a void and the possibility for a new regime. During this entire coup, zahrawi put out an audio tape the days before mubarak resigned but has yet to make another official statement since then. Which would lead analysts to believe that he is struggling to figure out how to handle the situation. If the power is given back to the people and a true democratic institution is put in place then people like zahrawi lose their importance and appeal. He needs either a dictatorship or some sort of oppression to gain power or he needs a religious regime be put in place. Which i doubt will happen at this time, the egyptian people have seen their power and have shown what the power of the people can do to the entire arab world.

As cheesy and spoiled this word has become, Change will happen in the region. Markets will get heavily affected, but a positive change will happen. Iran, Bahrain, Syria, Yemen and maybe even KSA will start to take note and start a positive change for their people. Food prices have risen exponentially in the region and salaries have stayed the same and the huge class differences in the population have not helped.

Hell if you guys have money that you invest in stocks and such, I've been trying to get people to buy stocks of Vodafone and Mobinil which are Egypts two major telecom companies that when the market does open their is a positive influx and helps the egyptian market not crash. Even buying just 1 share of each will help at this point. Egypt is ground zero for a huge revolutionary change to come in a region that has been battling getting out from under the thumbs of corrupt military rules, over zealous theocracies and and antiquated monarchies.

[Jedidiah]

I was hoping you would chime in Haithem. You foresee a potential collapse of the Egyptian market?

[Kielan]

If a democracy is formed in Egypt, I forsee hope for the rest of the region, if it falls to another dictator, I fear the worst for the region. I think it can be done, but they need the right people to come forward, and the people need to have the right mindset as well.

[Jedidiah]

If a democracy is formed in Egypt, I forsee hope for the rest of the region, if it falls to another dictator, I fear the worst for the region. I think it can be done, but they need the right people to come forward, and the people need to have the right mindset as well.

Spoken like a true US Ambassador

[Kielan]

Spoken like a true US Ambassador

[da3bous]

I was hoping you would chime in Haithem. You foresee a potential collapse of the Egyptian market?

Lots of people do right now, with no real government to speak of and not knowing the current path the military will lead things the market has remained closed. So they are worried that when the market opens those that benefited from the past regime (meaning those that the contracts were given to and became ultra rich) will dump their holdings and flee the country before their accounts are frozen.

Just an idea of how bad class separation has become in egypt. You have the normal citizens at the lowest tier; they barely make 1000 EGP a month (170~USD) a month, they are struggling day to day. If they are lucky are living in an apt that has been rent controlled since the 50's so are only playing about 20 EGP a month. But food prices have gone up a lot.

Middle class citizens which are doctors, lawyers, engineers....people who would be doing very well here are making maybe 5000 EGP a month. They again might be living in a rent controlled apt, but have other expenses like car loans, school loans, private tutoring for their kids since the school system is so saturated and such. Still affected by food prices.

Then here is were the huge disparity begins, you have the Old money "upper" class these are people that were part of the elite class before Nasser took over egypt. They had large villas and such in the early 1900's and were part of old egypt. Some of them lost all their money and homes when the military coup happened, but most that may have owned apt. buildings are the ones affected by the housing freeze. So they may own a building and are renting the apts, but are forced to rent 4 bedroom apts. for 20-50 pounds a month (which if you research it more you find that military officers are benefiting from this and refuse to move out and these are people making quite a bit of money).

Now you have the Ultra rich who for the most part are all military involved or mubarak family members. They became super rich super quickly. Their are suburbs of Cairo that villas are selling for a min of 20 mill USD. The real question is how military officers and their families could gain this much money or afford multiple homes like this. Their are suburbs like this outside of cairo, alexandria, sharm elshiekh and any vacation spot.


These are the people that if they pull their money out will collapse the economy, which if there is an investigation of where all the money went it will lead to them.